Self-Driving Cars: Job Killers or New World Order?
The debate over job-killing automation is raging in a number of sectors, but information technology made headlines in automotive circles this week after a top VC downplayed the effects of democratic vehicles on jobs.
Large-scale unemployment forecasts due to vehicle automation is "a fallacy," Marc Andreessen said at this week's Code conference. "It'south a recurring panic. This happens every 25 or 50 years. People get all amped upwards about 'machines are going to take all the jobs' and it never happens."
But Andreessen's comments come as the International Transport Forum, an industry think tank, predicts enormous job losses in the trucking industry due to self-driving technology. "Automated trucks could reduce the demand for drivers by 50-70 percent in the US and Europe past 2030," it warned in a report this week.
Autonomous Vehicles = More than Jobs
Andreessen contends that autonomous vehicle engineering will not merely create more than jobs, just generate unabridged complementary industries.
To support his case, he pointed to the terminal major shift in personal transportation. When automobiles replaced horses a century ago, jobs from blacksmithing to buggy-whip-making were well-nigh wiped out. But Andreessen argues that at the time no ane could accept predicted that the car industry would become a giant economic and jobs engine.
"The car created non simply a lot of jobs creating cars," merely new adjacent business such equally roadside motels, fast-food restaurants, street paving and maintenance, and more, he says. "The jobs that were created past the automobile on the 2d-, third-, and 4th-gild effects were 100 times, 1,000 times the number of jobs that blacksmiths had."
But he ignores the fact that in 2022—different in 1917—automation has already eliminated millions of manufacturing jobs. Andreessen's projections besides don't take into consideration the larger consequence of how to retrain truck drivers and other displaced blue-neckband workers for a world where their jobs are done by robots.
"If automation does steal jobs, that'south not the primary problem," contends John Suh, vice president of Hyundai Venture. The real event is "the relative shift in jobs that pay a living wage and the tasks within jobs that are subject to automation."
A recent Atlantic commodity that focused on the effect automation will have on truck driving jobs noted that "every bit America'south experience with manufacturing taught usa, the country has not been especially good at anticipating and responding to the changes wrought by automation."
While the commodity concedes that automation "doesn't just become rid of jobs" only "creates new jobs as well," it adds that "oft the jobs that disappear are depression-paid, repetitive work and … those new jobs are non ones that those depression-skilled workers can hands make full."
It also notes that "millions of manufacturing jobs accept been lost in the past two decades to automation, and yet few of the workers who lost these jobs take been equipped to move to a new field or to a new region of the country where new jobs are beingness created. It does not appear that trucking will plow out any improve."
Unlike Andreessen, Suh believes that "most if non all electric current jobs have some potential to exist replaced by automation." So it's crucial to train people for jobs that are "hopefully in the future difficult to automate," he adds. That includes the work of venture capitalists. "I wonder if Marc Andreessen would feel the same if AI replaced top-tier VCs?" Suh quips.
About Doug Newcomb
Source: https://sea.pcmag.com/opinion/15903/self-driving-cars-job-killers-or-new-world-order
Posted by: grigglikerseld.blogspot.com
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